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- Two days back I’d written that on my morning message instead of my signature image, some financial market group image is getting delivered to readers and I thought it’s a fault at WordPress’ end. That was a one off case and I issued clarification to this effect
- It was a day of comedy y’day as multiple images were doing round. A German Shepherd was visible to some which in normal course should offend me but then when someone shared the photo of a couple “wanted” in Dubai I felt – being a bulldog or a Doberman is better than being wanted for a crime
- On a serious note, multiple people have comeback and highlighted this concern since y’day. Consequently for the time being I’m removing the image. Also let me inform that in case someone sees any offensive content please bring the same to my notice so that I can issue a clarification in this regard. If image can get modified the content can also be – can’t dismiss the offensive content if any getting circulated in my name
- Who’s Harry Dent I don’t know but the conviction with which he’s predicted the crash on Nasdaq calls for googling about him. One line that makes me do so is his writing – what do you do if you want to cure hangover, you drink more
- The real alibi is that he’s linking it to 1925 – 1929 where in it was a natural bubble and there was no stimulus but this time there is an artificial stimulus per se. this is not a WhatsApp news, this has a coverage on HT Mint, though he says that the stimulus may enhance the overall economy long term but will see the fall out only when this bubble bursts
- One may say 98% fall in Nvidia may or may not happen depending on what the underlying fundamentals of the stock are but the prediction of a 92% fall in Nasdaq is completely blown out of proportion though I do agree with the fact that over the last few years whatever the gains US economy has seen have purely been on account of stimulus and also that over a century the economic fundamentals and theories have virtually lost correlation
- Dow is down 175 pts and Nasdaq is marginally in red down 25 pts. It seems market has finally understood that Powell has given the market a sugar coated jelly with no hopes of an aggressive rate cuts oh sorry a cut. I think beyond 25 bps in September he will take a long pause till the economy bubble bursts as being foreseen by Dent
- Dollar index gets another lease with rates having been left unchanged and a hawkish tone. The greenback has once again crossed 105 mark to trade at 105.22; Eurozone cutting and US holding back, the JPY continuing to be in doldrums, obviously the DXY is going to get the sufficient boost
- US treasury yields though are coming off and the 10y is now trading at 4.21%, very close to the bottom. As I’ve been saying till the time the real event happens and the tone changes from hawkish to dovish there will be swings and upside risk to yields will continue to persist. Now from what level these turn back needs to be seen
- Gold is trading 20 dollars higher at USD 2340 and silver is trading at 29.17 and though nothing has changed fundamentally for the metals since y’day, it seems the market has decided to hold on to them at support level and made a pullback from there. A break down below USD 2300 for Gold and USD 28 for silver may set a freefall but somewhere the market believes that this too shall pass
- Not that I should agree to everything that industry leaders talk about. Especially the one about whom market speculates to be the central character of my book Rewards of a Shortchanged Life. A left arm medium spinner a business wizard habitual of forgetting his wallet too often and the go to man for government. I don’t need to name the person who’s done this tweet and about the telecom company in news nowadays
- The concern coming out is that the company being discussed has issued equity to its lenders to clear off the debt and now lenders will go and sell that equity in market to recover their dues. Cost of equity is always the highest and hence if the company has issued equity, it has borne out higher cost
- Regarding the timing of sale it is not a must that the creditors will come immediately and dump the stock in the market. If they’ve accepted equity instead of debt they also know what kind of evil they’re dealing with, if one perceives it to be a devil which I don’t
- The company belongs to a family group that will go to any extent to protect the family reputation and will not let the company go down without putting in necessary effort – this is not a start up by a fly by night wunder kid with scant respect for shareholders and compliance. I don’t think I need to name the company and the group
- Nifty closed the week with a gain of 65 pts and on a day when it scaled a new life time high of 23490 for the first time it has managed to close above 23400 mark. Some say it’s a breakout, some feel the pain is yet to come and I feel it’s time to see through with a neutral angle
- The index has run up and from that perspective there can be some pullback but if you go by specific stocks there is still enough stuff to pick up. The day though belonged to defence stocks and there was hardly any that didn’t run on high speed. Till when and for how long will news drive the fundamentals let’s see
- Closing remarks – off the cuff – there is a very thin line that differentiates your success from failure. At times you are at par in terms of strength and ability but your actions of ignoring the sane voice tend to make the difference. There was hardly any difference in strength of Kaurvas and Pandvas
- If Pandvas had Vasudev Krishna, Kaurvas had Bhishma and Dronacharya. The difference was Pandvas listened to the sane voice of Vasudeva Krishna and Duryodhan not only chose to ignore the words of wisdom but do exactly opposite of what was being told only with the objective of giving a message of supremacy that I call मैं का गुमान – and in the end paid the price through his life
Stay safe, stay healthy, God bless you all, have a great day !!
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Vikas Miglani writes 