VM_view – mood of the nation – how will India vote in 2024 – a seat assessment ahead of time

Is the field actually wide open – read out to find out

#VM view – India elects a new Parliament in 2024 – seat projection in today’s scenario

Caveat – I am not a qualified psephologist, I carry psephology as a hobby and a passion. This is just an assessment basis my own assumptions and data points I have come across on electronic media, some websites and what I’ve observed basis the opinion being expressed by spokespersons across party line 

Indeed I have used the vote percentage garnered by a parties in last held assembly polls and last parliamentary elections held in 2019 to make it a bit more scientific. Reading a political post people inadvertently tend to attribute the same to political allegiance of the writer and at times the writer even gets trolled

Quite often I’ve written posts inclined towards BJP and faced the music from Congress supporters and vice versa. As stated in the past I am not answerable to any individual for my political allegiance and my idea of writing the political posts is to present an objective analysis to my readers. The idea is to share the outcome of my passion with readers’ group who are interested in politics and at times pose this question to me

I may have voted for BJP or for Congress, I may have pressed or going to press NOTA even, this post has nothing to do with that. Naysayers are free to equate me with Rajdeep or Barkha or Arnab, I don’t mind. The idea here is to just bring forth the facts that are going to give direction to the political environment prevailing at the moment, basis my understanding

As a matter of fact even this time there is no competition for the ruling alliance and the opposition is just trying to put it’s own house in order as a step towards 2029, a time by when many of the erstwhile and current stalwarts would have gone down into books of history 

Please see, if you are not able to access this document, you can message me to share this document with you on what’sapp 

Background

• The political dynamics in India have changed drastically since the time I started tracking politics in 1989. From a Congress majority we slipped through into an era of unstable coalition, followed by coalition blocks providing relatively better stability to an absolute majority one party rule
• While every election had it’s own significance I consider 1989, 2004 and 2014 to be the gamechangers. 1989 because we are still paying the price of the mischief the then Prime Minister carried out in name of Mandal and Kamandal
• 2004 was different because it sprang a surprise in an unexpected loss of BJP led NDA, reaffirming the fact that India still exists in villages, as India Shining campaign failed badly. Ironically a capitalistic economist, the supporter of free markets, the man who ushered in opening up of Indian economy, became the Prime Minister with left support
• Beginning of contradictions in a party which was leading a coalition government for the first time with two power centers but still not only it managed to complete it’s term but get re elected as well with higher number of seats than in 2004
• Then comes 2014, riding on the votes of genZ, giving a hope, an absolute majority government after three decades and the leader leveraged the electronic and social media in a manner never leveraged before. Not only Prime Minister Modi won in 2014 the BJP managed to return to power in 2019 with more number of seats than in 2014. (303 vs. 282)
• Developments of last eight years have ensured that there is a complete decimation of opposition, so much so that Congress losing one state after the other and one leader after the other has virtually lost it’s existence
• Regional parties on their part are able to take the BJP head on in select pockets but at pan India level they fail to gather momentum and that’s why the party is firmly in saddle and on course to form the government again in 2024   

What has changed between 2014 and 2022

• Though there is some element of discontent against some policies of the government but looks like in overall scheme of things the nation is willing to ignore the gaps as minor blips. The vote share differential of BJP to Congress is virtually double, going by 2019 votes. BJP had 38% to Congress’ 20% and needless to say in subsequent assembly polls the party has widened the gap further
• While Demonetisation is a forgotten affair and the nation is more or less happy with what has been done on internal security front, off late the debate has started gaining momentum around unemployment and dwindling economic fortunes mainly due to income divide, despite the economy doing reasonably well in this era of unfavorable global headwinds 
• Foreign policy is one area which will remain debatable despite the Foreign minister working 24*7 and virtually living out of suitcase. The challenge is relations with neighbors where the government was found wonting in term 1 but in term 2 it’s bridged the gaps significantly. On it’s ties in Rest of the World and especially handling of Russian crisis in a neutral manner it scores full marks. Though foreign policy doesn’t have too much visible impact on the elections
• The voting pattern in the country has changed significantly and now the voters vote differently for State elections and Parliamentary elections. Even in states which went to poll just before the parliamentary elections or simultaneously the trend is evident and that’s one reason in 2019 BJP could sweep entire Hindi heartland even though it lost power in some states
• While the BJP has managed to consolidate it’s vote share and in majority of states where it has significant presence, say Hindi heartland it is in range of 30 – 50% and where it is not present the party has started to make inroads, say in Odissa, Telengana etc
• In 2019 elections BJP had a pan India vote share of 38% and Congress had 20%, but there was vast difference in seats the two parties could manage to win. This also makes us look at vote share of BSP under Mayawati and Left front led by CPM. BSP has a pan India vote share of close to 5% and even left has a similar number
• Unfortunate part for two parties however is that the vote share is so scattered that it is not able to win more than 2 or 3 seats and that too at benevolence of alliance partners. Similar story is applicable for Congress as well 
• There have been exodus of leaders from various parties as majority of leaders have formed a beeline to BJP. Loss to Congress has been the maximum as it lost leader after leader and all ending up in BJP
• Only credit to Congress that for now it has managed to retain it’s pan India presence with the vote spread out across the length and breadth of the country. Though it has not converted linearly into seats but at least it is able to present itself as a glue around which other regional parties can connect
• While the party has managed to maintain it’s pan India presence but the vote share is so scattered that it is not converting into seats. Having been rudderless for almost 3 years its now making efforts, eighteen months before the parliamentary elections to regain some lost ground

Assumptions in arriving at the seat projections

• For UP, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala and West Bengal, I have done some caste based analysis in my back up documents but given the fact that I don’t want to give this document a religious / caste color I have not given any reference to the same here
• While state elections have a bearing on parliamentary elections, given the way the voting is now being done, the impact is limited and given the electronic push by BJP the vote share is further widening
• While there is every possibility that Congress may lose Rajasthan and Chattisgarh in state assembly elections scheduled in November 2023, the party may still manage to get a few seats in parliamentary elections, unlike the clean sweep BJP had last time
• Similarly in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, where the vote share differential is very narrow and BJP has managed clean sweep last time, the party may have to forego some seats and these will go into Congress’ pocket, however I won’t be surprised if it’s a clean sweep again
• In Maharashtra, elections are going to be different this time. BJP will contest with Shiv Sena (Shinde) faction. If Congress NCP and Shiv Sena (Udhav) faction fight together it will be a two cornered contest but in all likelihood, BJP has advantage and may manage to cover the loss of seats in other states from Maharashtra. This state can act as X factor for BJP as making Shinde the Chief Minister they closed all doors for Sena to unite again
• Bihar is going to have the same story as JDU, RJD and Congress combine will contest together under Mahagathbandhan. If that happens BJP will have herculean task at hand in winning the state. This is one state that will not vote differently given the literacy and caste factors and together Lalu and Nitish having their own vote bank has a sway on voters
• In UP last time SP & BSP had contested together but fell apart after polls. Mayawati managed to win at cost of SP and had 10 seats. This time it will draw blank and the beneficiary will be BJP
• While Kerala and Tamil Nadu will act as face savers for Congress, it’s Karnataka that can spring a surprise. BJP seems to be on a slightly weak wicket and though still projected to win around 20 seats, it may lose out a few to Congress. This is going to be an X factor state for Congress
• All in all, marginal losses in Hindi heartland, Karnataka and Bihar get compensated from the gains it is going to register in UP and Maharashtra and only saving grace for Congress is that it will manage to open it’s account in some states and reach a level of 75 – 80 seats 
• AAP has managed to make inroads in Punjab and is targeting Gujarat, Goa and Himachal this time. In all likelihood they will target Haryana as well, but as we’ve seen in Delhi, the vote share in state assembly may not translate into the parliamentary elections. Atleast this election they may not be able to make much impact beyond Punjab
• The list of Prime Minister in waiting is growing and will continue to grow but there is no vacancy at the top, at least at the time of announcement of election results. What happens in 2026 or 2029 no one has a clue right now but 2024 will belong to Modi only 

Party & Blockwise position and what can go wrong   

• Two arguments are going strong in market now a days – BJP will cross 350 and the other one that the party may slip a bit from 300 and still manage to get majority on it’s own i.e. say around 280 seats
• In current scheme of things where it’s peaked out in Hindi heartland and expecting some losses this time a push towards 350 requires deep inroads in South where there is still sometime. The losses of Hindi heartland getting covered at the most from UP and Maharashtra can peg the party around current position only and this is my best case scenario
• Coming to party losing some seats and dropping towards 280, the guestimate I’ve done for sure has a 5% margin of error and given that Congress moving upto 75 is highly likely, we cannot rule out the possibility of number of seats dropping to 280
• Still as a conclusion I feel, party wise BJP is still ending in range of 290 –  300 seats and Congress to 75. In nutshell BJP will manage to protect it’s turf and whatever Congress gains will mainly be at cost of the fringe players, termed the so called third front
• Even otherwise whether it’s 280 or 300 will not have much impact on government’s stability, since collectively the NDA is above 300 and then there are friendly opposition parties like BJD, YSRCP and if required TRS can pitch in. Needless to say the party now has over 100 seats in Rajya Sabha as well
• The clear assumption in this projection is that the ruling front is being led by Prime Minister Modi. The change of guard looks 100% unlikely but then a week in politics is a very long period
• Given that in state of Gujarat, Congress has consistently maintained a vote share of close to 40% in assembly, there is an outside chance that it may cause an upset. If that happens, this entire working may need a rework as that will give a fresh impetus to Congress and a feeling that they can and that will cost BJP the seats in entire Hindi heartland
• Two leaders from BJP are also the X factor. Nitin Gadkari and B S Yeddiyurappa. Gadkari is a past president and dyed in wool RSS karyakarta, may not revolt or disturb the applecart, but fingers are crossed on Yediyurappa as he’s a considerable sway in Karanataka and in past also he’s left the party for once
• In below table Seats of NDA, UPA and Others i.e. for BJP Congress and YSR CP to be read a column leftward. BJP is 296 vs 303 and blockwise NDA 314 vs 317. Similarly Congress is 75 vs 52 and UPA 112 vs. 88. YSRCP had 22 seats last time and projection is 15 this time around. Overall others drop from 134 to 114 this time

		2019 (actual)	2024 (projection)
Block	Party	Partywise	Blockwise	Partywise	Blockwise
NDA	BJP	303	317	296	314
LJP	6	2
JJP	–	1
AJSU	1	1
SS – Shinde		8
NPP	1	1
MNF	1	1
NDPP	1	1
RLP	1	1
ADMK	1	–
Apna dal	2	2
UPA	Congress	52	88	75	112
JMM	1	2
IUML	3	3
KCM	1	1
RSP	1	1
NCP	5	5
DMK	24	24
VCK	1	1
Others	YSR Congress	22	134	15	114
TDP	3	8
AIUDF	1	1
JDU	16	12
RJD		14
NC	3	2
JDS	1	1
CPM	3	2
SS	18	1
AIMIM	2	1
NPF	1	–
BJD	12	10
SAD	2	–
AAP	1	7
SKM	1	1
CPI	2	2
TRS	9	8
BSP	10	–
SP	5	6
Lok Dal Ajit		1
Trinamool	22	22
	Independent	4	4	3	3
	Total	543	543	543	543

State by state profiling with rationale for seat projection

State	Rationale	Projected seats
Andhra Pradesh	State goes for simultaneous assembly polls as wellRegional strongmen in YSRCP – Jagan Reddy and TDPs N Chandrababu NaiduNaidu on a comeback trail as Jagan’s popularity waning a bitVery narrow vote difference at 50:40 for YSRCP and may push two into alliance with BJP and Congress respectivelyBJP doors almost closed for NaiduCan see a Jagan + BJP vs. Naidu + Congress	Congress – 2YSR CP – 15·      TDP – 8
Arunachal Pradesh	With mass defection the opposition is non existent in statePema Khandu is well settled in BJP at state levelKiren Rejiju is now the face of north east in Delhi cabinet Advantage BJP	·      BJP – 2
Assam	Himmat Biswa Sarma’s home stateBeing at helm he will like to better last election performance of 9 seatsVery narrow vote share difference in 2019 – 36% vs 35%Congress may look for an alliance with AIUDFStill it’s advantage BJP and may turn out to be 8 – 10 for BJP	BJP – 9Congress – 4·      AIUDF – 1
Bihar	Phir palat gaya Bihar and seems Lalu’s RJD will be on a comeback trailA caste sensitive state where both Lalu and Nitish may transfer votes to one anotherBJP had 24% vote share in 2019 and RJD Congress & JDU had 44% combinedIf the three fight together, which looks likely, it’s advantage mahagathbandhanThere is no Ramvilas Paswan and his brother may not be able to pull as the votes get split between Chacha BhatijaBJP is going to lose seats and RJD once again debut in Lok Sabha	BJP – 10LJP – 2Congress – 2JDU – 12RJD – 14 Imagine someone with 12 seats being PM contender
Chattisgarh	State goes to assembly polls six month prior to Lok Sabha elections with Rajasthan and MPCongress faces anti incumbency and infighting in state electionsLikely to lose the last ruled state as well10% vote differential between two parties and a swing of 2 – 3% can turn fortunes in 2 – 3 seatsBJP likely to repeat it’s tally of 9 seats it got last time or may be gain 1 extra as bonus on wresting power from Congress	BJP – 10Congress – 1
Delhi	AAP wonders what is the wrong it’s doing in Delhi Lok Sabha electionsNo answers as it’s vote share stands at number 3 in parliamentary pollsBJP will sweep all 7 again though it might be required to change a few candidates	·      BJP – 7
Goa	Right from 1990 it’s the state of defectors barring the late Parikkar eraCan be 1 – 1 or 2 – 0 either side	BJP – 1·      Congress – 1
Gujarat	State goes to poll in next 3 months A jewel in BJPs crown and eyesore for CongressOnly state where Congress has consistently maintained a vote share of ~ 40% in assembly as well as parliamentary polls but failed to pip Modi – Shah duo for last two decadesBJP will go that extra mile to ensure that it’s pocket borough remains with itCongress may manage a couple of seats which were fringe seats last time but may still not be able to make a dentAn outside chance of upset in assembly polls is always there, and can’t be ruled out this time as well. If that happens this entire exercise will need a rework	BJP – 24Congress – 2
Haryana	One state which is a case study for BJPNo major presence till 2014 and then it pipped Congress to annex the stateSome element of discontent with BJP persists but not enough to dent parliamentary pollsBJP might go in alliance with JJPVote % may not matter or change fastHooda clan and Shailaja are strong in Congress and can pull someExpect Sonepat, Rohtak and one of Ambala / Kurukshetra to come Congress’ wayHisar I expect to go to JJP and this might leave Kuldeep Bishnoi in lurch leaving a question if he will be accommodated in Bhiwani	BJP – 6Congress – 3·      JJP – 1
Himachal Pradesh	Himachal also goes to polls with Gujarat in next three monthsBJP ruled state where there is a history of alternate terms for BJP and CongressJairam Thakur did well but perceived to be still coming up the curve While vote differential in state polls was close but in parliamentary elections it was quite wide BJP 69% Congress 27%It’s advantage BJP but the by poll win in Mandi has given hopes to CongressGiven narrow swings it can be either 4 – 0 or 3 – 1. Can even be 2 – 2The state leaves a question – will Kangana Ranaut make her political debut on BJP ticket	BJP – 3·      Congress – 1
Jammu & Kashmir	First election after repealing of article 370The state now stands trifacted into 3Jammu & Ladakh region will go the BJP waySrinagar Baramula and Anantnag will go sharing	BJP – 3NC – 2·      Congress – 1
Jharkhand	The state in news as BJP narrowly missed forming government last timeOne state where despite low vote share the opposition could form the governmentNarrow swings make it prone to shift either sideBoth JMM and Congress have no choice but to contest together and yield space to other alliance partners as well	BJP – 10AJSU – 1JMM – 2·      Congress – 1
Karnataka	This is the X factor state and projections surely going to change in next 18 months. This state might decide if it’s 290 or 300 for BJPGoes to poll (state assembly) next yearYeddiyurappa is not happy at having been removed as Chief Minister and has a sway on his communityBomai low on acceptability within and government facing backlash for inept handling of flood situation though only in BangaloreCongress has a big issue at hand – infighting and that’s why position will get cleared after the assembly pollsIn last assembly polls Congress outshared BJP in vote % but in parliamentary polls it was BJP which had 50% vote shareStill this can be the state where Congress may manage to spring a surpriseOne only needs to see how the JDS acts as the party has a history of being a vote cutter with it’s 10% vote share	BJP – 20Congress – 6JDS – 1·      Independent – 1
Kerala	The state belongs to Congress as last time also it was a face saver for the party15 MPs from state that helped improve the 2014 tallyLDF is fighting two term anti incumbency this time and looks like it will not be possible to manage a seat one more timeRahul Gandhi has spent maximum time during Bharat Jodo yatra in KeralaEntire 20 expected to go UDF / UPA way	Congress – 16IUML – 2KCM – 1RSP – 1
Madhya Pradesh	With Chattisgarh and Rajasthan the state goes to polls just six months before parliamentary electionsOne vote here and there and this state would have gone in history as the tied result in last assembly electionsKamal Nath managed to pull it for Congress as vote % was 41% – 40.9% Congress & BJPScindia felt shortchanged at not getting the CM position and the coup happened leading to fall of Congress governmentIn parliamentary election however the BJP managed to garner 58% votes and corner all but 1 seats, including the iconic Guna seatOn ground Kamal Nath is active and trying to swing a few seats the Congress wayLet’s see how many it can as for now it looks like BJP has strengthened further with Scindia also in party	BJP – 25Congress – 4
Maharashtra	There is one BJP and there are two Shiv SenasMNS may also throw it’s weight behind BJPCongress and NCP have no choice but to contest togetherPawar’s popularity is waning and Fadnavis gaining but Congress is still trying to ride on PawarAshok Chavan’s moves are unknown and Nana Patole not been able to come upto expectation given the weak organization base of partyWhat will happen to Priya Dutt and Milind Deora, will they contest on Congress or the BJP ticketThere is lot going to happen in Maharashtra where the Shiv Sena (Udhav) faction vote bank will surely shift to BJPThe sitting MPs may be allowed to be fielded as Shive Sena (Shinde) candidates and riding BJP’s popularity some may manage to get reelectedThe losses in Hindi heartland will get covered for BJP from this state	BJP – 30SS (Shinde) – 8Congress – 3NCP – 5SS (Udhav) – 1 Independent / MNS – 1
Manipur	There is no opposition left in state and the way BJP routed opposition in assembly polls its advantage BJP	·      BJP – 2
Meghalaya	Congress had a higher vote % last time but the seats got divided 1 eachSimilar expectation this time	BJP – 1·      Congress – 1
Mizoram	Mizo national front is a no side party	·      MNF – 1
Nagaland	NDPP is a NDA alliance partner and given the dynamics in state will manage to hold onto the seat	NDPP – 1
Odisha	Navin Babu’s state for over twenty years nowGoes in for simultaneous assembly polls with parliamentary electionsBJP goes soft on it’s tacit ally but gradually catching up on vote shareLast parliamentary elections the difference was only 4% and can get bridged this timeImportant now for BJP to strengthen it’s own base lest it becomes a Punjab where given an ally it never went aggressiveMaybe BJP gains a seat or so at BJDs cost this time, if there is some swing in vote %	BJD – 10BJP – 9Congress – 1
Punjab	What will the Congress be thinking? The state had a tall leader and it was in it’s pocketGiven on platter to AAPThe tactical error on BJP’s part – not building an organization while in alliance with SADIt found an opportunity in the Congress divide as it got into it’s fold – Captain and Sunil JakharWhat will Manish Tewari do? Do we see him on Congress’ ticket or BJPsWill the BJP field Jakhar and Captain’s wifeWill the AAP manage to convert it’s assembly poll success to parliamentary poll or this will also go the Delhi way	AAP – 7BJP – 4·      Congress – 2
Rajasthan	With Chattisgarh and MP the state goes to polls just six months before parliamentary electionsPost assembly elections there will be a change in scenario in Rajasthan as well. If (miraculously) the Congress retains power it may manage some seats else can draw blank evenLast of the large states with Congress, there is high probability that party may lose this time as Rajasthan has a history of switching power between BJP and Congress since 1990In assembly polls last time the vote share was even at ~ 39% but in parliamentary elections BJP managed 58% and swept the stateWhat about this time – Gehlot is in a precarious position and before elections will he be the Chief MinisterSachin Pilot’s next move is not known to anyoneMaybe fielding a few heavy weights might help pull a couple of seats but looks like it will be BJP all over again	BJP – 22Congress – 2·      RLP – 1
Sikkim	Regional players at contest, can go either with SDF or SKM	·      SDF / SKM – 1
Tamil Nadu	The state with Kerala that saved the Congress further blues in 2019With both Jayalalita and Karunanidhi gone the canvas has got redefinedDMK under Stalin has strong ties with Congress and ADMK is in disarrayGiven Congress’ 12% vote share Stalin will have to be flexible in dealing and yielding some seatsEven CPM / CPI also has presence in stateThe alliance of ADMK + BJP will most likely draw blank in state	DMK – 24Congress – 9IUML – 1VCK – 1CPM – 2·      CPI – 2
Telengana	Another state that goes in for simultaneous pollsThe youngest state created by Congress with a hope that it will retain post 2014KCR pipped the party to finish line and is in command since thenCongress still has close to 30% vote share and though BJP has managed to pull 19% in last parliamentary elections and despite that it managed 4 seatsKCRs magic seems to be waning a bit but the father of state usually gets unseated with great difficultyA few seats here and there it will still corner maximum seats	TRS – 8BJP – 4Congress – 4·      AIMIM – 1
Uttar Pradesh	The decider – the state of anticipated PM in waitingWith 50% vote share in parliament and 41% in assembly BJP is miles ahead of othersSP & BSP together have 37% and adding Congress’ 6% there is a outside chance of giving fight but someone can take seats away from BJP seems difficult as they also have strategic alliance with small playersKnown for it’s caste based voting pattern and this makes the role of SP & BSP criticalEven Apna Dal and Jayant Chaudhary have their own significance hereAkhilesh will for sure not go with Mayawati this time as he feels the votes from her vote bank didn’t transfer last timeBSP had 10 seats all thanks to alliance it had with SP. This time no alliance and all seats will go back to BJP instead of SP & othersCongress is on the brink and not sure if it will be able to retain Rae Barely also this time	BJP – 70Apna Dal – 2Congress – 1SP – 6Lok Dal – 1
Uttarakhand	This was one state where the BJP was in disarray before assembly pollsA low hanging fruit for Congress which it had let goneA vote share of 61 : 31 in 2019 Lok Sabha was 44 : 38 in 2021 assembly pollsBJP managed all 5 seats in 2019 and this time also it can be all 5, except for some last moment surprise	BJP – 4Congress – 1
West Bengal	Mamata didi is in command once againThough after recent CBI raids she’s gone into silence a bit, but post 2021 assembly polls she’s reinforced her command in stateBJP had 18 seats last time with a 40% vote share to TMCs 43%It might be difficult for BJP to maintain that share and even Mamata might have to yield some space to other alliance partnersIt will remain a state with opposition and only noticeable point – CPM still has 6% vote share and can get an odd seat	TMC – 22BJP – 15Congress – 5
Remaining Six UTs	Andaman BJP narrowly lost last time can regainChandigarh it will retain for sureDaman & Diu & Lakshdweep also expected to go BJP wayCongress may get Puducherry in alliance with DMK Dadra Nagar Haveli may still remain with local strongman who contest as independent	BJP – 4Congress – 1Independent – 1

All the vote percentages and seat count of last election is taken from Wikipedia 

Once again I reiterate this is basis the current trend we are seeing. A lot will change till April / May 2024. Congress will have a new president, six major states viz. Gujarat, Himachal, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh and MP will have new state assemblies and the outcome of Bharat Jodo yatra will also be known with more clarity. Even Gujarat and Karnataka may have an element of surprise and we don’t know the impact Bharat jodo may have north of Vindhyas

This is all local, a lot will happen internationally as well. There will be a lot of debate around inflation, jobs economy that will also influence the voters. For sure there will be change but I feel this assessment is sufficient enough a feeder to blow the trumpet of election assessment

I was asked – why come out with a possible assessment 18 months in advance when there are still a lot of events that are going to unfold and I answered. The mood has already turned to polls and both the Bharat Jodo Yatra and aggressive narrative by BJP are clear indicators of that. Further as a market wallah I have the habit of looking at events well in advance and prepare myself accordingly 

Though the 2024 election outcome may not have too much adverse effect on market, it’s time we start factoring in election outcome in our financial markets and this leaves us with another question. What impact will it have on the markets. Markets can get impacted only if the ruling front is upset and in the current scheme it’s impossible

There can be a marginal impact if the party falls short of 272 number but then as a block it is still projected to be above / close to 300, so per se even there may not be any impact, however that may leave the field wide open for 2029

The style of government functioning may also see some change, a bit accommodative as well but then we know a “Tiger never changes his stripes”. Some stocks may novate others, some sectors may novate others and even some states may. May be this also leads to a change of guard in and around mid term. So all possibilities are there

On a lighter note, during next six months many channels and print media will come out with their own opinion polls. It gives a sense of satisfaction and pride in being ‘Sabse Tez’ aur meri speed to duniya maanti hai. Kyon duniyawalon – aap to jante ho na mujhko

Will look forward to your opinion on the assessment that I have prepared without having any personal bias towards any party.