#VM view – assessing road to Parliamentary elections 2024 –

A year to to go – it’s entire Europe that votes once in 5 years in India – NDA 3.0 what can go write and what can go rong – the multi tusker knows how to spell the words and the magician knows how to catch votes

Caveat – While the document has been titled NDA 3.0, in no way it’s an endorsement or recommendation from my end that we should elect NDA or junk the other opposition fronts. The idea of this document is to simply assess the political situation a year ahead of time when we will be in midst of parliamentary elections that will once again elect the national government

I had rolled out my exit poll analysis in October – i.e. before the Assembly Polls 2022 and post that there have been a series of changes that have modified the dynamics further. This document is more of a mid course review of what all has changed from thereon. The biggest being the virtual decimation of opposition in Gujarat where it seemed like the ruling dispensation may be on the backfoot 

I am not a political analyst and carry out political assessment only as a hobby without any commercial interest involved and the views expressed are my own without being attributable to my family, friends or my employer

The idea is not to give this a communal color and hence it’s not aimed at any community, religion or religious group. My backend assessments do take those factors into consideration but I’m at liberty not to disclose the same here. Even otherwise this is not a seat assessment document but more of what has changed in last six months and what else can change from here on

This document mainly aims at assessing what is going right and what is going wrong for each of the blocks and some positive and some negative actions having taken by the respective groups. I am not going to mention about the questions being raised on proximity to the corporate house or the recent (questionable) encounter of the Don, where we are still hearing claims and counter claims

But disqualification in the back of Bharat Jodo yatra will find a mention in this document and so will Karnataka where the ruling dispensation is on a backfoot and the recent interview from a former Governor who knew a lot and has spilled beans that may be difficult to collect and count

At some places this may also seem like being critical of the ruling front’s actions and at the same time what opposition is doing but as I said earlier, the same is more from assessment perspective that will be defining the course of direction the Indian polity may take over next 390 days

Since the ruling dispensation is aiming at third in a row victory and seems to have a head start the document is titled 3.0 – and to give it a balance there have been a few question marks

I leave it to the readers how they want to read it and troll me after that. Always open for feedback and suggestions but in no way willing to accept the adjective of being patriotic or traitor to the nation because I don’t need to prove my patriotism to anyone. This is my country, my land and my constitution gives me right to express my opinion as long as I’m not offending the rights and liberties of fellow citizens   

Background

• Why do I say – Entire Europe votes once in 5 years in India – India is not just a country, it’s a continent where every state is as big the size of a European nation. It has diverse cultures, diverse dynamics and individual aspirations and egos of individuals at helm that need to be managed
• In the Federal system where the roles and responsibilities of both center and state are defined, it’s not easy to manage when some states are run by the ruling dispensation at center and some by opposition
• You need an iron fist to rule such vast and diverse geography and at times some actions are required to be taken which may not be in the best interest of general public but are still required, however there is a very thin line that differentiates autocracy from a participative approach and in some cases the absence of participative approach creates discontentment
• Being in power you have at your command the agencies and in this era of technological advancement, no matter you may be able to keep your tabs on one set of information provider, but through various platforms the information tends to trickle down to masses
• Buoyed by your success, you leave a few loopholes or decide to go in for the knockout punch a bit earlier, which in cricket parlance is mistiming, that it gives a fresh lease of life to the opponent 
• You have a set of leaders who keep floating around, switching sides and are privy to a set of sensitive information and immediately on switching side or being out of favor vent it out without having weighed the consequences of their action
• Some points may definitely have a weight but the timing and the way they seem to have been put across may change the narrative completely and that is the key to your success
• Buoyancy at center and the feeling of invincibility might have pushed the ruling dispensation into overdoing somethings which I feel may have ramifications that are not evident going by what media is projecting
• The opposition on the other hand could manage to ruffle feathers with Bharat Jodo yatra and the leader’s disqualification could have helped garner sympathy especially in South but only one statement criticizing a freedom fighter exposed the chinks in opposition armory and the trait of inflicting a self goal
• I will start with Karnataka where the ruling dispensation is on the backfoot and Maharashtra where it may look to be the game of horse trading or pushing the state into political instability but the game being played by local leader the CM turned Deputy is pretty long term in nature. Giving up for 5 years he’s bracing up for 25 years type
• All in all next 390 days are going to be very interesting, starting with an electoral reversal of sorts at beginning and that may either turn out to be J curve for the ruling dispensation or a (re)launchpad for opposition   

The Karnataka Nataka

• If we exclude Rajasthan where the change of guard is certain this year, this is the only state where the opposition dispensation is in a strong position with two mass leaders and even the opposition party president hailing from the state
• The ruling dispensation was on the backfoot at the start itself as the incumbent Chief Minister lacked charisma and then the party had sidelined the former Chief Minister who had larger than life stature in Karnataka politics especially in his own community
• Being on the backfoot letting go another former Chief Minister and Deputy Chief Minister was indeed a bold ask especially when the former CM claimed to have a sway in 25 – 30 seats and the Deputy claiming to be the caste champion
• There are already issues beyond governance at play in the state and in this two way fight now the chances of ruling dispensation to a great extent will depend on how successful the party of former Prime Minister is to cut into the opposition votes
• While the battery of start campaigners is slugging it out in the state but somewhere the ruling dispensation seems to have lost the plot. My own take is that they should have sacrificed the two seats that the exiting CM and Deputy had asked for to avoid dent in other seats; even if it’s not 25 – 30 then may be 5 – 10
• There is every chance that principal opposition party, if it comes to power in the state may see the infighting between the two strong incumbents and there is chance that it may somewhere face the challenge right through the tenor
• Some leaders have the habit of speaking out of turn in ruling dispensation even but there is a need to rein them in. Speaking out loud that we will replicate a Goa or a Madhya Pradesh tends to send the wrong signal  

Maharashtra

• Maharashtra power circles are abuzz with rumors that once the judgement is out the ruling dispensation at center will cut short the state government it had juxtaposed to replace the previous government
• The new government will again be from the defectors from the other regional party which also has a chief minister in waiting for many years now and wishing to fulfill his dream 
• Frankly speaking when the last time around a year back this experiment was carried out I was surprised and failed to read the fine prints in detail as to what the ruling dispensation wants to do. But in one shot it killed the regional party which was its long term ally and had started becoming uneasy for quite a while now
• The problem with patriarchic parties is that beyond the charismatic individual who forms the party, barring few like in Tamil Nadu, there is no one in second line to take the lead and that’s the reason when the founding patriarch is towards the fag end, the first among equals try to fulfill their ambition and the same is being fueled by the ruling dispensation
• Why is Maharashtra different from Goa or Madhya Pradesh. Frankly the state’s biggest misfortune has been that barring the last one from ruling party no chief minister in last over four decades has completed his term, despite being one of the largest state with industrial capital of India the state has always been shortchanged
• The ruling dispensation this time was the single largest party but was pipped by a post poll tie up where an erstwhile patriarch’s son wanted to be the Chief Minister and the other two parties wanted to keep the ruling dispensation out
• At the time of defections the ruling dispensation could have formed the government by giving the chief defector the deputy’s position rather than being a deputy himself but by staying out of power for one term he’s shot many birds with one stone
• Given the high command a message that he’s an out of the box thinker and is suitable for a larger role in the party affairs and beyond the state. He’s equally Upyogi though not as visible as the Babaji
• Icing on the cake he’s managed to decimate both the patriarch parties in one term only and that’s why it’s said that at times it pays to step back. The opposition is in disarray having lost many of its towering leaders and now killing the regional outfits the party has created a foundation like MP, Gujarat wherein it may emerge as unquestionable force for decades together  

The ruling dispensation beyond Karnataka Maharashtra 

• The three states going to poll in November –  For now it looks like it will regain Rajasthan and in all likelihood Chhattisgarh as well but the fight remains as far as Madhya Pradesh is concerned. Though the local unit is strong and even the Chief Minister commands respect but there is a discontentment and how that’s handled needs to be seen
• One point that is being debated everywhere is the (around) 23:15 hours shootout of April 15 and legitimacy of the same but I’m not getting into that debate for two reasons – one it’s not yet established that it was official or not and two I feel it’s politically insignificant now
• If I write beyond this it will be sharing my view on the incident and that too from communal angle, but one thing is for sure the local government discretely is trying to send a message that they are making the state safe from Mafia and more conducive for business
• The degree saga – irrespective of whether the Emperor is educated or not we need to see if he’s competent or not. And from that perspective I don’t think he fails to fulfil the criteria. And ruling dispensation is right in maintaining a silence on the matter and not falling prey to enticement by opposition
• If there is an instance of misrepresentation of facts, the law will take its own course but this doesn’t give a chief minister from opposition party the right to use floor of the assembly to mock the elected executive head of the nation in absentia on no name basis. Do that on streets as an opposition leader no issues
• The use of agencies – every government has a lever in hand called agencies which are used against the mischief mongers. There is no denial that where the word politics comes the element of corruption is bound to emerge. The government is trying to give the message that there is zero tolerance to corruption in its regime
• The thought is nice and appreciable but you just can’t rinse entire muck in one wash that too when it’s widespread across length and breadth of the nation. Somewhere a wrong message is also going out with use of agencies as the alacrity in dealing with opposition cases is relatively higher. And two incidents clearly highlight the same
• The self proclaimed clean chit in Haryana – for last ten years the land deals of Jijaji were under scanner and the ruling dispensation had been making it a point to mention that in any election rally or conference in North but apparently they’ve given a declaration in court that no norms were breached in the dealing
• That’s a different matter that one of the state ministers has come and clarified that it’s not a clean chit but something with respect to a process that formed the part of entire series of events. The case is on but looks like there is an element of dilution that has set in and may give opposition a lease of life and a few seats in the state which anyways it was tipped to given the weakening position of the local government 
• The disqualification saga – every time the political obituary of the prince is written, he gets a fresh lease of life and this time also it was no different. The Bharat Jodo yatra had given a reasonable mileage but the same started to get diluted with the overseas agenda being pursued by the party and then suddenly his membership was terminated in a case which seems to have been blown out of proportion
• Though the prince has inflicted a self goal by making adverse remarks against the late Maharashtra freedom fighter but somewhere he’s managed to convey the message that he was not allowed to speak in parliament and it’s out of fear of his speaking that the government acted swiftly to terminate his membership. I mean what would he have done in a year, unnecessarily he’s been given an issue that he’s been made a fall guy and will garner sympathy on the same
• The ex Governor speaks – I don’t know the law if the official secrets act applies to office of a Governor / ex Governor or not but what the ex governor has talked about will have some ramifications and can potentially dent internationally as well. Levying the allegations on the business group he’s lent sanctity to the prince’s dismissal
• The points he raised – on the sensitive state’s trifurcation, the unfortunate martyrdom of our jawans and the corruption angle especially in another state where he was transferred. I know people will try to counter question as to why didn’t he speak when he was watching all this happen under his eyes and try to dismiss even but he’s set  the cat among pigeons
• Whether he joins another party or campaigns for that or not, is something that will unfold in future but for now his statement is acting as a stain on spotless white claims of the government machinery, and he’s not spared even the office of Hon’ble President
• The fallout of this as I see is going to be on three fronts – the rhetoric against corruption, the rubber stamp allegation against a former Prime Minister and something on Kashmir but if you want to avoid that there is only option
• In markets at times we say – do nothing is the best strategy; when the ex governor himself has said I’ve nothing to say nothing to disclose – 5 kurta pyjama – I don’t think there is a need to go after him. Let the matter die it’s own death. I mean many of us have hosted lunch for our guests in nearby gardens, why make an issue out of it and give him coverage   
• The Punjab problem – now this is serious and the way things are going in Punjab if they are not nipped in the bud it will for sure create problem and the government seems to be aware of the same. It may not have ramifications on seats beyond north but will surely open a pandora’s box which may become difficult to manage
• This is one of the opposition ruled states and a sensitive one. Forgetting the political allegiance, there is a need to resolve the issue but having risen to power on tacit support of internationally spread outfits right from Canada to Kiwis it’s not going to be easy to side with center and the public at large may not appreciate the same, especially in nearby states
• The resolution to this point has to be beyond politics and the Central government is well aware that not everything can boil down to politics. I mean in a state within our country if questions start getting raised on wearing a national flag – are we in a foreign land
• The opposition unity – indeed the opposition is united in India but in opposing one another, nobody is bothered about what’s happening beyond his own state. The lady from east has suddenly gone silent, her neighbor apparently waiting to tilt once again but the doors are closed and then his nephew deputy is in his own world, offers promise but there is a baggage of dad he carries
• The former chief minister of the largest state after demise of his father last year is still trying to put his house in order; the man from the newest state in south is nursing national ambitions but ground is slipping beneath him in his state and the Maratha strongmen are now being tackled by another Maratha who apparently knows how to play the game their way. The crusader of corruption from North has to answer for both the UT state and the troubled state
• The stand off with Judiciary – while the constitution has defined set of powers for both the executive and judiciary, across governments the two institutions have been found to be criss crossing one another; however both the institutions have exercised certain restraint. Off late however the frequency and trivial issues on which the stand off is emerging have increased. It is for obvious reasons that the captain of ship on another side also has a sway. There is a need to ensure that a narrative is not attempted to be created around a stand off with judiciary where the captain changes, many a times, more than twice a year. At least the institutions like the Raisina hills, the courts need to be kept out of political stand off
• Economic issues – the taxation and the education system along with reservation – economy is on firm footing but there are areas which seem to be wonting. The growing income divide, the lopsided tax structure wherein sixty million people are feeding almost eight hundred million; for ten thousand seats in universities, there are close to three million aspirants and mind it – majority of them are from taxpayers’ families. It has started to become a burning issue even with the first time voters who are finding it difficult to sustain. Though at the moment this issue can be brushed aside as Chalta hai but soon it can gain momentum and managing it will be difficult then             

Closing remarks

• Though the government is still on firm footing, the fatigue of having ruled for a decade is now evident. With the party having become too large in size at times it’s difficult to manage the motor mouths within ruling dispensation even
• It somewhere failed to manage the nataka in Karnataka by letting go a former Chief Minister and a Deputy. A parliamentarian also left but looks like the party is firm that it wants to offload excess baggage. You never know the state can still surprise either side even though odds are in favor of opposition
• The ex Governor’s assessment is right that only way to defeat the ruling dispensation is to consolidate the opposition vote through man to man marking by fielding one candidate in every constituency, but that’s easier said than done
• Whether it is doable or not, but the question is do we want this? This will be a scenario where we will again see someone with forty fifty seats heading a national government and will be busy managing the position than the nation
• In nutshell the way I talked about in the seat assessment in October, gains for principle opposition party seem to be visible in absolute number and the contribution may come in from Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, a bit in Haryana and Himachal  with a few sporadic seats at mercy of local allies
• The state to watch out for in 2024 parliamentary polls will be Maharashtra, where odds are heavy that the opposition may manage to go in for a man to man marking. If that happens the state will go the opposition way but any split among three opposition parties will be advantage the ruling dispensation
• We are still 390 days away from being in midst of polls and things will change almost daily. New allegations and revelations on the corporate house will emerge, more motor mouths will speak, the chinks in opposition armory will be out and so will be the narrative from government. Even leaders from Europe (I mean all states) will continue to speak. But for now these are the burning issues that are going to give course of direction to the political spectrum in the country
• My only advice to both the government and opposition is – Let’s not forget that we cannot undo or change the history and what our leaders of that era have done was done under those circumstances. Too much of assessment of their tenure or their actions can also subject you to same kind of scrutiny when you are not there to defend yourself
• Let’s not forget going from zero to one is more difficult than going from 50 to 100. India has grown over seven decades and will continue to do so; it’s for us to decide whether we want to keep ourselves busy in doing a historical post mortem or channelize our energy to shape our future – beyond Whatsapp University
• I am also sharing the link to previous blog titled mood of the nation wherein I have carried detailed seat assessment. https://vikasmiglaniwrites.wordpress.com/2022/10/06/vm_view-mood-of-the-nation-how-will-india-vote-in-2024-a-seat-assessment-ahead-of-time/     

Keep watching out for this space that I will continue to update every 3-6 months till we are finally into the elections. Will look forward to your opinion and feedback that may help me improve upon my accuracy level.