Caveat – Views are personal and only for knowledge sharing. No commercial interest involved in bringing this on wordpress platform. Only idea is to consolidate daily content on one platform and no liability on part of mig if these inputs are applied for making investment decisions without carrying out your own due diligence
- When somebody says that BJP has the numbers to form the government the counter argument generally is – tell me something the world doesn’t know
- The world even knows that complacency is bad and the price of rejoicing early was so heavy that India almost lost a decade. The world knows everything but we however don’t know that somewhere we are turning a blind eye to certain inevitable
- Over the weekend I had read somewhere that official Chinese News agency has announced that China is going to attack and include Taiwan as part of itself. Somewhere the market has completely ignored that
- Hamas had fired 36 rockets over the weekend on Israel and there has been a collateral damage as well but the same seems to have been missed in oversight. Is this the Iranian proxy at play – the lull before the storm we’d been talking about
- Russia and Ukraine have now gone down the ”Kasauti Zindgi Ki” way, a tv serial telecasted in early 2000 on star TV wherein the main characters don’t change even after three generations are born. I don’t know what for they are fighting anymore
- While US is still contemplating, the ECB has indicated that June rate cut is on cards but what after that is still to be seen. Having said that, Eurozone deserves the credit for having managed inflation very effectively and efficiently
- The two economies in trouble – Argentina grappling with 300% inflation but Milie is trying hard to pull the economy out of trouble once again and Sri Lanka is once again getting into the news as Tea plantation companies have been directed by Government to raise the plantation workers’ salary by 70% and now they are crying that this will impact imports. Surprisingly Sri Lanka exports 95% of its USD 1.30 bn production annually
- The wall street continues to trade flat but somewhere the element of bearishness is not coming in at all. US treasury yields also give an indication that any action will be only after the rate cut is announced as the dollar index is trading around 104.50
- The swings in gold continue to remain wide and to my surprise on a day when I was missing out of action it had slipped down back to USD 2300 before some recovery pulled it back to USD 2355. It is the silver that is continuing to outperform as the white gold touched a high of USD 32.02 overnight
- Coming to India – gsec yields continue to slide lower as the 10y closed at 6.98% and the old 10y was at 7.03% and the volumes were also fairly reasonable at close to INR 700 bn. As I’ve said earlier the govies are going to charter a different path this year for sure
- Nifty scaled a high of 23110 y’day another life time high but at a gain of over 130 pts for the day it lost momentum and finally closed in the Red. What is so significant about the move. Looks like from y’day on we’ve shifted into election outcome mode from election mode
- BJP is a certainty no doubt, question is how many seats. Dents are evident in Northern Hindi heartland but UP will offset the same, NDA allies are a drag in swing states Maharashtra and Bihar that will have a key influence in deciding the final number for NDA
- Where is it that the loss of around 10 seats of Karnataka going to get covered from? Will Bengal support or Tamil Nadu will turn out to be the dark horse with a seat odd in Kerala
- What are the two scenarios now – if it’s BJP 272+ anything the nifty makes a new high say around 23300 and correction sets in as market will start to look at factors it has chosen to ignore off late. If BJP is 320+ with NDA at 370 one can say we may see Nifty at 25k as well with 23k being the new bottom – let me reserve my comments on what scenario I foresee
- The one that dreads me is the one where in BJP falls short of 272 mark. Market anyways has to correct and we may see the index number heading back towards 22k and in the process the 23300/400 may become the near term peak. But this is for sure, it is going to be Modi 3.0 only and let me add to this Congress is not falling below 70 this time
- Closing remarks – off the cuff – the wheel of fortune keeps revolving, not that bad times also remain forever. There was a time when I used to get despised by the glamorous life of cricketers but now I feel – after all they are all 20-30 young kids only who at times are not able to keep emotions under control given the nature of their work
- It’s been two months only Shreyas Iyer was under fire for India not having been able to lift the World Cup. I know, the international and IPL are no comparison but still the man who’d been written off just a while back has comeback from the chips that were down to lead the side to lift the trophy once again after 10 years. What would he be saying at the moment – जो होता है मंज़ूर ए ख़ुदा होता है, so don’t get carried away if in short run you are shortchanged, God might be busy in writing a bigger and better script for you
Stay safe, stay healthy, God bless you all, have a great day !!
To get regular updates on your mobile subscribe to my telegram channel
Ebook edition of my books Rewards of a Shortchanged Life and When Life shortchanged Me is given below. Kindle subscribers can read it for free. Follow the link
Vikas Miglani writes 