Tag: US CPI

#Migmorning – June 13, 2024

Caveat – Views are personal and only for knowledge sharing. No commercial interest involved in bringing this on wordpress platform. Only idea is to consolidate daily content on one platform and no liability on part of mig if these inputs are applied for making investment decisions without carrying out your own due diligence

Continue reading “#Migmorning – June 13, 2024” →

#Migmorning – April 11, 2024

Caveat – Views are personal and only for knowledge sharing. No commercial interest involved in bringing this on wordpress platform. Only idea is to consolidate daily content on one platform and no liability on part of mig if these inputs are applied for making investment decisions without carrying out your own due diligence

Continue reading “#Migmorning – April 11, 2024” →

#Migmorning – February 14, 2024

Caveat – Views are personal and only for knowledge sharing. No commercial interest involved in bringing this on wordpress platform. Only idea is to consolidate daily content on one platform and no liability on part of mig if these inputs are applied for making investment decisions without carrying out your own due diligence

  1. On the ‘V’day if I start with a song मेरे नसीब में तू है के नहीं, तेरे नसीब में मैं हूँ के नहीं, ये हम क्या जाने, ये वो ही जाने जिसने लिखा हम सब का नसीब…I’m sure people will read between the lines but क्या करें, आदत से मजबूर हैं हम भी, I want to add fuel to fire. Let me start by wishing ‘V’days to you all – after all I love you all, whether you do or not is for you to decide
  2. Don’t worry the song is directed at markets and my investments in market. For two decades I kept trying to curate a portfolio that during the course of my holding will multiply 3x 4x and this time I was very close before I decided to change track
  3. And now once again market is wobbling and though I may not get to see the levels at which I’ve sold stocks but they’ve come off in such a manner that they are once again tempting and I won’t mind picking them up above the level I’ve sold them at. Infact this is the theme I wanted to touch to start with
  4. The general perception is – नीचे बेच के ऊपर ख़रीदना कहाँ की समझदारी है; there is definitely a wisdom in this. First when I sold did I sell at a loss. The answer is no and also the sale was for a purpose. Now when I replenish my liquidity it’s a fresh start, वो कहते हैं ना गुलज़ार साब – तो क्या हुआ जो बाज़ी ख़त्म हो गयी, दोबारा बंट जाते हैं वो बावन पत्ते ताश के
  5. Let’s assume a scenario – take any company X – you purchased at INR 200 and sold at INR 700 – 750 range, you managed to make your 3x. Suddenly there is a spike and scrip goes to INR 1700 you regret for the opportunity loss. Buying there is absolute madness but what if it comes back to INR 1000
  6. Yes I understand that the stock has gone through a phase of volatility but then if fundamentals are strong – go ahead. This is what market is and the view is not confined to a specific or single share or sector, this applies to entire market. Start a fresh once again
  7. Market off late is playing the Sehwag style instead of Dravid and while the average of two may be close to one another the consistency level is miles apart. After a day of carnage on Monday market regained some sanity and nifty ended the day with 125 pts gain
  8. Bank nifty with a 620 pts gain managed to recoup almost entire loss but midcaps have still long way to go in recovering their Monday’s loss, ending with a gain of 160 pts. The only silver lining is that during course of day’s trade the midcap index was trading entirely in red but for last hour when it pulled back in green
  9. In govies –  volumes have dried out once again and yields on 10y are consolidating around 7.10% and that’s more to do with absence of any major development per se. Y’day was no different as the market ended with a volume of INR 310.00 bn. The move in govies isn’t that worrisome for now given that the longer end i.e. 2063 is at 7.17%. In a way the curve is absolutely flat. One good day is what it requires to cover up
  10. Let’s go to US where the scenario has once again changed on inflation numbers. I am a bit surprised at the reaction as 10y US treasury has surged to 4.28% and 2y has surged to 4.60%. Dollar index has spiked to 104.70 as Gold slides 25 dollars to test the USD 2k mark once again. It’s trading at USD 2009
  11. The CPI number for January stand at 3.1% vis a vis 3.4% in December – ah it’s hot – I’m not saying, this is market reading only because hope was that it will drop to 2.9% and now feel that this may act as a catalyst to delay rate cut. Oh come on the number hasn’t gone up, it’s come down some here and there will continue
  12. Market bet is that rate cut is delayed further to May and even wall street has reacted to the same but was the writing not clear on the wall and Powell had already indicated a delay in cut. I’m still a contrarian not willing to read too much into the published inflation number and as long as it’s coming down I don’t see a reason for treasuries to offer a knee jerk reaction
  13. Dow is down 480 pts and Nasdaq is down 240; even S&P is down 60. Global equity markets are exhibiting a similar trend that the volatility level is fairly high and the confidence on sustainability of rally a bit under scanner
  14. Frankly speaking whatever is going on making me more convinced that coming days are for debt, I mean debt will outperform equity but unfortunately the rally in debt market is generally short lived than equity rally and more driven by regulatory action, at least in India for sure
  15. To sum up, on the expected lines the month is looking challenging globally and the volatility is relatively higher. This is the real test of character and calls for maintaining cool will your investments. If you are a bit nervous, you may use this time as sell on rise but frankly in the coming days markets will comeback. If that happens be prepared to start all over again, with no taboo of going in at higher level than where you sold                                                                                                                                   

Stay safe, stay healthy, God bless you all, have a great day!!                                                 

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#migmorning – November 11, 2022

Caveat – views are personal and only for knowledge sharing. For detailed caveat please visit previous editions of migmorning at vikasmiglani.com

1. Barring India’s unceremonious world cup exit, it’s euphoria all around as the US CPI numbers have come better than expected
2. Though the meltdown in Crypto market continued but intra day recovery has created a false sense of expectation
3. With October CPI at 7.7% against expected 8.0%, expectation of further hike being smaller in quantum has gained momentum
4. There is a rally in markets as Dow gained over 1200 pts or 3.7%. Nasdaq had a whopping 7.4/% rise gaining over 760 pts and S&P gained close to 5.5% or over 210 pts
5. It’s no more a dead cat jump and is a genuine comeback of sorts as the indices prima facie have reacted to an event but let’s be clear – we are still far from a pause or reduction in rates and hence need to hold back on sense of euphoria
6. Yields have seen a significant drop – 10y is down 33bps to 3.81% and 30y is down 20bps to 4.01%. yield on 2y bond is down to 4.33%
7. A 25bps 10*30 spread is one of the highest in last few weeks and is adding to the value of 30y making it a bit more attractive
8. Market has demonstrated what I’d been talking for a while now that the slide may be swift
9. While the trend reversal is not yet complete but it’s definitely a precursor. One may not be able to catch hold of on reversal
10. Only exception 2y yield hasn’t dropped as expected and inverse spread continues to be over 50bps, so recessionary pressure still persists and we need more data to establish a trend
11. On the expected lines the dollar index is down to 108.05 as the greenback will lose momentum with reduction in pace of hike
12. Gold is shining brighter by the day and overnight it gained 40 dollars to close above USD 1750
13. Bitcoins deserve a mention today, so a covering a few points. At USD 15,682 it were at lowest point of the day before recovering to USD 17,800. Ethereum at USD 1331 was up over 14%
14. A financial instrument is fluctuating 25% in a day and we expect sanity in market, oh come on – the instrument calls for to be junked. I usually don’t look at the crypto section but this time it’s come at a time calling for attention
15. Fall in cryptos – good or bad for other assets – the initial fall will be bad as the leveraged investors will try to cover losses from other instruments and hence sell what is salable
16. Once the dust settles the other markets may turn out to be the beneficiaries as one may see asset switching and that can add value to equities and metals
17. India – USD / INR exchange rate witnessed INR slip by 37p to 81.81 and 10y gsec yield was at 7.33%
18. Nifty lost 130 pts to close at 18030 with an A/D ratio of 1:3, however the market movements of Y’day may not have a connect as the scenario changed overseas overnight
19. Going by the trend in SGX the nifty has gained over 330 pts and currently trading at 18,430 and the market is expected to continue with the same momentum locally
20. Global markets are for sure expected to go in for rerating but the headline inflation no is the first one recorded below the expectation, there is still way to go
21. Closing remarks – off the cuff – always sell on news is the mantra for success in markets – we are reacting to a news right now. Don’t sell if you don’t want to, but don’t jump the bandwagon even. Market will still offer a chance to invest

Stay safe, stay healthy, god bless you. Have a great day!!