Have been rolling out monthly political commentary for almost a year now and I’m going to end this with results of parliamentary polls in June 2024. The battle is getting hot and the scenario changing very fast. For next three months i.e. till June 2024 on public demand I will be rolling out the weekly countdown, covering the key actions of the leading party (parties if one is willing to accept that there is a contest) and who stands where in run up to the polls
Caveat – The write up is my assessment basis the news and analysis I’ve been reading in various print/ electronic / social media and in no way a reflection of my political allegiance. The views are my personal and not to be attributed to my employer, my family or any other person with whom I have ever discussed the political matters
Idea is just to summarise the developments at one place to project a holistic picture. Names of parties have been frequently used but in no way aimed at demeaning any individual or party. Due care is taken to ensure that there is no reference to any religion, however at some places the reference of caste say like SC / ST / OBC might come up given that there are some political parties who’s existence is in the name of caste they represent and that is only to express the specific point and not to demean or paint negatively anyone basis their caste or creed
- Two gone five more to go but the trend is almost the same, I mean the voting percentage is not going up. In second phase also the vote percentage is down to 65%. There is a 3% drop from last time and this can have wider ramifications especially for BJP. No qualms in saying that low voter turnout may be a disadvantage to ruling front
- 190 of the 543 seats have already voted and with the summer heat political temperature is also rising. I wanted to avoid this week’s write up because I know readers will want to read my comments on the last week speech and I will simply say if speech is silver silence is gold but then multiple stakeholders called me to check the update post phase II and I decided to let it come out
- The advent of Whatsapp has proved to be a blessing for India and I really feel the university has contributed immensely in eradicating illiteracy from the country. I asked a few young guys the eligibility to be a Rajya Sabha member and I got all answers from 18 years going up to 40 years, not even one person being able to answer me that it’s 30 years but everyone knew the contribution of our freedom fighters in laying the wrong foundation, the gaps in constitution and how those gaps have been abused subsequently. History teachers have been rendered jobless in India it seems
- Videos of the past speeches from both sides are now being fired like missiles the way Israel and Iran are exchanging them right now and frankly speaking I will say crux of the matter is that all firings are going futile but one thing is for sure both sides are fighting a high decibel battle right now. From aaloo sona to gas plant and cloud videos, all are out and so are the ones defining the rights, however the beauty of technology is that these can be doctored easily
- My job is not to get into the fine prints of statements as both parties are in the process of doing self goals which usually happens in election season as it’s very difficult to control a wider set of leaders hungry to give soundbytes, but I’ve to see and highlight where exactly the interest of middle class is getting compromised. Inheritance tax – I don’t think it’s even possible in India because with great difficulty the intensity of brain drain has slowed; are we again trying to give it the required momentum
- One line on economy before I switch back to politics – average (direct) tax incidence is around 25 – 30% of total income that means that in a year you are working 120 days for the government; then if you count indirect taxation in this it goes above 60% now add to this the inheritance tax and maybe I will also be the one to contemplate buying the citizenship in one of the Caribbean islands
- Question one needs to ask is – what is even the need of making this statement and the gentleman who’s made this statement is a learned professional who I actually attribute as janak of telecom revolution in India. It’s just that a man is known by the company he keeps and that ways the party that is credited with unveiling economic reforms (no matter it was under Narasimha Rao whom the party later on disowned) is now getting the criticism for sharing stage with the leftists. One can recall 1969 as well
- It is generally said that memes and stories emerge out of real life instances and situations and if that is the case why is it that parties fail to understand that by being populist you are simply pulling down the pie – if I know doing nothing I will get at the cost of one who’s doing everything I will switch camp from high performer to non performer and be happy with my subsistence income
- We are not going to face problem only with Congress party or INDIA alliance even on the other side we’ve a challenge, especially on direct tax front where we are already paying high taxes and take it from me the old regime of income tax will be done away with in all likelihood. Now we’ve to make a relative choice, compromise with old tax regime going and newer taxes being introduced or let the sword hang on our heads that in some form our wealth is going to go
- One statement I will like to make here – in case the BJP falls short of majority mark and any alliance comes into power, don’t live under the false illusion that it will be a short lived alliance and an unstable government. That government will surely complete full 5 years because fear of getting out of power again will keep them glued and fighting within and this time mind it there is not going to be the wise men like Dr. Manmohan Singh or late President Pranab Mukherjee. [there is a big if attached so don’t read it as a definite statement and in case you want a different outcome, be the change and go for voting]
- Where do we stand at the moment – 400 paar has lived by its expiry date and no one is talking about it anymore. My January assessment was 280 seats for BJP with seat wise profiling and state wise vote share in assembly and last parliamentary polls with NDA going up to 305. There seemed to be momentum building up and I had to make an upward revision to 310 for BJP and 359 for NDA in February/March as during this time fresh realignments had taken place with JDU going back to NDA, JDS alliance and some leaders from opposition going to BJP fold especially in Maharashtra, Gujarat. Congress I was not willing to drop below 70/75 from 90 seats that I had projected for in January because the party hardly has anything (left) to lose now and in some seats in direct contest it has a chance
- Somewhere the scenario is changing again and it’s heading towards BJP 280 though I’m still holding on to my projection of close to 300 which I’m hearing is the assessment of the bookie markets as well. When we used to speak in January / February it was more of an emotional call that BJP can lose a seat or two in Hindi heartland state by state but now the same is looking set with facts and let me state those facts here with seat and state profiling
- Delhi North East – Kanhaiya Kumar seems to be heading into Parliament defeating Manoj Tiwari, so the first seat loss in Delhi in a decade; Rajasthan while the first hand report is that it’s going to be 25-0 but looks like Jalore can see a close contest more as a prestige of three time former Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot in ensuring that his son enters parliament this time
- Not only that there is some fight in Sikar and Kota – Bundi seat where current Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla is a contestant for second time. This is interesting that since Shivraj Patil no Lok Sabha speaker has returned to parliament in next election. Will he be able to duck the trend. Then you’ve a big fight going on in Jodhpur as well. Overall the feeling is that BJP might lose 3-5 seats in the state and that can be big shift and all these will go to Congress in the direct fight
- Haryana there are three seats for sure in the loop – Rohtak Deepender Hooda will win back the seat he lost by 6500 votes last time; Kumari Shailja returns back to Sirsa from where she’s been elected twice and there is high probability she may win; her father was a four term MP from there
- Hisar – looks like BJP has decided to restrict the role of Congress defector Kuldeep Bishnoi by denying him ticket, which can have ramifications as party has given the ticket to old timer Jai Prakash (JP). Initially the talk was that Late Bhajan Lal’s elder son Chander Mohan may get the Congress ticket and may gather momentum at a time when the farmers are a bit agitated with BJP
- For those who don’t know JP, he was a Deputy Minister in 1990s in Chandra Shekhar government for a very short period. Though he may have lost last time and facing a tough challenge this time around as well, with three members of Chautala family in the fight there will be division of votes and there is a chance that the seat may see a keen contest with Congress having a slight edge. The BJP candidate is also from Chautala clan
- Karnal – Khattar will be a clear winner though in Ambala also there is a fight though BJP looks to have an edge here. AAP makes its debut in a direct fight in Kurukshetra as with Naveen Jindal having switched sides, Congress is not fielding a candidate. Why Haryana gets special coverage because this is where my political baptism had taken place and I know every constituency at back of my hand. Otherwise also with 10 seats only I say – Chota Teer ghaav Kare Gambheer
- In UP the ground report suggest that barring the family seats of Samajwadi party it will be BJP all out as SP may benefit from sympathy wave of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s death and this being first election after that. But I think Mathura has also gone into a spin with a video going into circulation on the role of a member of parliament. Hema Malini may find it difficult to sail through this time
- Rahul Gandhi is back in Amethi and looks like it will be a keen contest with a chance that he may wrest back the family pocket borough that he’d lost last time by around 30k votes. No matter what the media reports continue to project he will win through Wayanad also. This time for sure and about 2029 it is too early to talk about
- Hold on a bit as I just hear that there is another contender for the seat – Jija ji and if that is the case it’s once again a lost seat. In the evening choupal in society I heard this with a caveat that he knows his limitations and will not claim the seat. But somewhere I’m told a lot of to and fro is going on and he’s been making the noise and public posturing as well
- Rae Bareli – so you’ve Priyanka Gandhi taking over the mantle from her mother and contesting the elections. No doubt on her filing the nomination papers and one can say there will be a fight but it can’t be said with surety if she will win hands down. This is also the family seat and one needs to see a contest within family members and that way apparently Varun Gandhi has shown wisdom by not locking horns with elder sister
- Ladakh is a challenge and one cannot rule out Congress causing an upset there. Looks like there have been some gaps in managing the situation letting it go out of hands and it is the effect of this that the party is on the backfoot. In the regional constituencies with regional issues this is generally a challenge but let’s see how the party negotitates the same
- Rajkot it seems the party has given up on for obvious reasons but as I say every seat will count and this can be a matter of Gujarati pride that both men from the party may go all out to ensure that they pull it back. I’ve talked only about Hindi Heartland spreading up to Gujarat where from we enter Maharashtra in West and Bihar Bengal in East
- While the summer heat caused a fumble on stage for union minister Nitin Gadkari who’s subsequently recovered, a question one needs to ask is – What is Didi’s health bulletin stating; second time in a month she’s got a fall; first time in her house had some head injury and now in the plane she slipped injuring her foot again and what is the position w.r.t voter turnaround. Looks like the best case scenario BJP may manage to retain its 18 seats from the state; no addition seems to be coming
- Bihar at NDA level (where it was 39 out of 40 last time) there is a chance that we may see some loss of seats. Similarly in Maharashtra we are seeing a loss of 10-15 seats at NDA block level. South is already covered in my earlier write ups so I’m not getting into specific seats this time. So the pluses in South are getting negated in North to an extent and now if the swingers don’t play out to BJP’s advantage one may see the break down from 300
- At the cost of repetition let me add – UP +5, Haryana -2, Himachal, Rajasthan, Gujarat Delhi -1 each, Karnataka -6 at least and this leaves us with -7; your gains in South are Andhra +3, Tamil Nadu +2 and Kerala +1 leaving it flat at 302/303 seats and at NDA level -10 in Bihar and Maharashtra each. Now on top of it if there are major reversals in Rajasthan as some reports suggest Madhya Pradesh the theory of 280 may gain credence. Till the time South comes into the lap the party numbers seem to have peaked out
- Conclusion – a low voter turn out is disadvantage BJP and while the markets are still betting on close to 300 the ground situation seems to be slightly different as with every phase of voting the voices for slide down of seats to below 270 is rising. I’m still not willing to bite the bullet of 250 but if it happens take it in writing that even then it’s the BJP that will be forming the government headed by Prime Minister Modi only and only two swing states
- I want to add one more thing in conclusion that I’ve said y’day in the choupal – we are all nobody to make a guesstimate because we’ve information on pockets, the party machineries sitting in Delhi have a 360 degree view and going by that “Picture abhi baaki hai”. Given the organization base and Prime Minister Modi being the tallest leader in country right now one cannot rule out a surprise like December 2023 when it was losing all 5 states
- One last submission here – while I may be projecting a 300 seats to the party there is definitely an error margin of 5% and as long as the seats remain within 280 – 310 I will claim success in making a near accurate projection in line with my 2014 projection wherein I was one of the only few to have given the party 270+. If it’s 310+ I will have satisfaction of going wrong on the right side and if it’s below 250 then only I will say it’s time to hang the boots now – which I’m sure will not happen
Keep watching out for this space that I will continue to update every week till we are finally over with elections. Will look forward to your opinion and feedback that may help me improve upon my accuracy level. But please don’t tag me a bhakt or a chamcha. I’m NOTA
Once again I reiterate – no politician is going to come in our support so let us simply read the political commentaries with an objective mind rather than applying them as a mud slinging weapon on one another and name calling. Let us only evaluate the outlook rather than spoiling personal relations by trolling one another
Vikas Miglani writes 