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- Always value the feedback that readers share on this write up and the one I got y’day was w.r.t view on equities. Since I’ve been sharing this for over 5 years now somewhere the mind starts to think alike for both readers and the writer and somethings I leave it to assumption
- A reader pointed out all positives in equity market asking where is the concern. I realized I’d missed out to mention that view is w.r.t next few days only and it has started to play out as nifty lost over 230 pts y’day and bank nifty was down 420 pts
- Let me once again reiterate I am a bull on India and putting all eggs in one basket – equities – which though I don’t recommend my readers to do simply because my risk appetite maybe different from yours. I simply recommend that you should know how to time the market and this is not a conducive time to build up position aggressively
- Nifty had a gap down opening and it tried to pullback as well but bears were in a dominating position and somewhere by the end of day the feeling market was giving is that all hell has broken lose, when actually it’s not so
- At start of the day the talk was 22800 gets delayed by a few days and by end of day people had started talking about 22k – and this inconsistency is beauty of the market that one needs to master at before getting in – I’m still trying to learn the art of execution in this environment
- CPI inflation number for March stand at 4.85% and there is a sequential drop of 25 bps from February, though food inflation is rising. That one can say is a bit transitory but overall it seems the inflation targeting is paying off and we are approaching the target set by RBI
- Two days back sensex was at 75k (including GST) and y’day Gold touched a high of INR 75k and silver is at INR 85k. We just can’t say that there is a mayhem in market that’s why the alternate assets are rising – they are simply following the international trend which is seeing a dream run for metals but other assets are running for cover
- In three trading sessions – Dow has lost 800 pts as it’s trading down 320 pts while I’m In the process of finishing this write up. Nasdaq that had gained 280 pts y’day is down 190 pts and despite strong data flow it seems Dow has lost momentum as it’s caught in the no man’s land where everything depends on Powell and his FOMC
- Deferral in rate cuts is testing traders’ patience especially in the bond market as treasury yields continue to trade above 4.50% and some reports are suggesting that it won’t be a surprise if we get to see 4.75% on 10y. A bit early (but not unlikely) to make this prediction though
- Dollar index consolidates further heading to 105.75 as JPY hits 34 year low of 153 to a dollar, but it’s gold and gold and only gold all the way as the yellow metal touched a high of USD 2448.75 for a brief period and continued to remain above USD 24k through the day. Needless to say at 2448 it was trading 75 dollars above previous day
- I’m anticipating a similar break out in Silver as well which is still at around USD 28 and still short of 2020 peak of USD 30 and that is one reason which is tilting the balance in favor of silver this time in addition to the white metal having alternate utility as well
- At a time when everything is going haywire economically as well as politically weekend is a very long period for markets to remain closed and one can just hope that with the economic seesaw something untoward doesn’t happen on geo political front as the middle east continues to boil
- Overall it’s time to stay cautious in the market. I’m not saying sell of everything and take nirvana but just hold back on your investments for the time being as next sixty days are very very crucial for markets and just to add some fuel to the weekend fire let me throw a number on nifty – 21500. Please don’t take it seriously, no research no backing just my gut feeling
Stay safe, stay healthy, God bless you all, have a great day and a profitable year ahead of you all!!
Regards
Vikas
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Vikas Miglani writes 