#VM view – Political Countdown – April 14, 2024

Have been rolling out monthly political commentary for almost a year now and I’m going to end this with results of parliamentary polls in June 2024. The battle is getting hot and the scenario changing very fast. For next three months i.e. till June 2024 on public demand I will be rolling out the weekly countdown, covering the key actions of the leading party (parties if one is willing to accept that there is a contest) and who stands where in run up to the polls

Caveat – The write up is my assessment basis the news and analysis I’ve been reading in various print/ electronic / social media and in no way a reflection of my political allegiance. The views are my personal and not to be attributed to my employer, my family or any other person with whom I have ever discussed the political matters

Idea is just to summarise the developments at one place to project a holistic picture. Names of parties have been frequently used but in no way aimed at demeaning any individual or party. Due care is taken to ensure that there is no reference to any religion, however at some places the reference of caste say like SC / ST / OBC might come up given that there are some political parties who’s existence is in the name of caste they represent and that is only to express the specific point and not to demean or paint negatively anyone basis their caste or creed

April 19 is the first phase of polling and 19% of the seats that means 102 will have gone to the polls by the end of next week. The campaigning (on ground) will come to an end on Wednesday April 17 and after that only the TV channels will continue to run live campaign
For traders the most difficult thing is to survive in an environment where the volatility is missing and since this is looking to be a straight through election it is becoming difficult to make an accurate prediction though one thing everyone is agreeing to is return of BJP
One return of Prime Minister Modi is certain, though on the number of seats there is a divergence as I’ve heard from 250 going up to 350 BJP and Congress finally managing to scale the mark above 75 with position of leader of opposition though some sane voices still feel it may get confined to 50 – 60. Not unlikely I can say because now it’s the ballot machines that will determine, time of guestimates is gone
But let me tell you one thing at the outset the kind of manifestos the parties are releasing is something of making unrealistic promises and if these have to be fulfilled either the taxes will go out of the roof or the fiscal position will drain us completely. State by state we are seeing precarious fiscal position – and if at center also it starts then God save the middle class
Honestly speaking I don’t have the ability to pay any further in tax and god forbid if tomorrow I’ve to seek benefit from state, I will be a completely forgotten lot and whatever I’ve paid will be a sunk cost for me. And this is what majority of you also feel, I’sure
Those who say from our tax we get roads – we pay road tax on vehicle purchase, then petrol cess and to get to drive on a road we pay toll as well. Not on inter state, we are paying toll on within city roads as well. The sea link in Mumbai, Manesar toll in Gurgaon on Eastern and Western periphery road multiple tolls and state and center highways needless to say – almost Rs. 2 a kilometer of drive at some places
While almost 60% of our income is going out in form of direct and indirect taxes any further levy that will be required for this populism will compel us to seek MGNREGA benefits rather than slogging out. Read the manifestoes with this underlying principle
Coming back to point – frankly a number of 250 for BJP is completely unrealistic and anything below 280 will actually be a defeat for the party. On the same lines all those who talk about Congress falling below 25, I will term that as utter nonsense. My view still remains unchanged – BJP 300 – 310 with NDA 350 – 360 and Congress 75 – 80
I know I will be getting a few trolling messages for making this statement but I don’t mind because I’m not writing this write up with an emotional frame of mind but an objective analysis for my readers
Let’s not forget that the role that media has been playing leaves a lot of questions unanswered and at this point in time also it’s showing a picture that may be different from ground reality and all opinions are getting built upon that. In this era of high technology and high decibel journalism it’s very easy to build or destroy any opinion
I don’t need to get into the matters that media is covering and not covering and for what purpose or reason but for sure it leaves a lot to ask and they are doing it with elan. One may not be articulating his opinion on some matters but it’s a fact that people have a sense of judgement and they are taking note of all that media is choosing to ignore
The Congress party is running rudderless and many of the bigwigs are not contesting elections needless to say it has agreed to play junior partner in Maharashtra to Shiv Sena (UBT) and is facing the mass exodus of leaders, even those to whom it had given tickets as well but let us not forget that there is a clear north south divide evident and as long as the BJP doesn’t manage to convert the vote percentage into seats, 25 will remain out of question
There is no AAP in elections now it seems as the entire leadership of party including the supremo is behind bars and those out are also staring arrest and probably that’s the reason they all are lying low. I’m not getting into what is right and what is wrong because that’s for law to decide
Let’s start with assessing what can bring down the BJP to 280 though very less likely but as we say in politics anything is possible. First factor that I will rate high is the foreign intervention. Not to doubt the competency of our agencies but we’ve seen the foreign hand at play in many elections globally and adversaries can surely try in India as well. Afterall Modi despite being a towering world leader is an eyesore for many in India and abroad
One news report I read on some media website – and not on whatsapp – stated that the party with difference is now Modi’s BJP exactly the way it was Indira’s Congress in 70s that had taken the shade of autocracy. I will reserve my opinion on the matter except for stating that I’ve always maintained that Prime Modi is the real protégé of Madam and carries the same aggression
No harm in that because we’ve seen the best of times in foreign affairs during the tenure of these leaders. I won’t get into that Katchatheevu island controversy as that’s more of political rhetoric and will die down in next two months but Bangladesh’s presence on world map is testimony to that effect. And have a look at India’s foreign policy under Modi and Jaishankar especially in last 5 years
However one needs to ensure that the mistakes committed by the lady are avoided. Are we on to that? May be not in entirety as one of her flaws was that the command center was Delhi and regional satraps had been marginalized to a great extent
While they may have managed to rehabilitate Dr. Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh as assembly speaker and given ticket to Shivraj Singh Chouhan from Vidisha the lady in Rajasthan is still not very keen to campaign and this is where a couple of seats get stuck. Then you’ve Ashok Gehlot factor and he will not like to see his son lose again. In a way 3-5 seats in Rajasthan can see a close fight
Surprisingly there are a few seats that are getting into a loop in Gujarat this time but as we say Gujarat is the home state so there is not much of a worry but then if you get to lose even a single seat there, it will be termed as a loss. In MP and Chhattisgarh also there are a few seats that are very close and in Odisha the alliance with BJD couldn’t be worked out
Haryana Rohtak is for sure going and there are chances that Sirsa may also go. Manohar Lal Khattar will surely win Karnal but Gurgaon – Mahendergarh and Faridabad will be keenly contested. All in all there looks to be a loss of 1-2 seats. In Delhi at least 1 will go, which one, not sure for now and there will be a few possible losses in north east
Corresponding gains from UP may be 3-5 given that there are alliance partners and that’s why it’s very very important to maintain a 95% strike rate in hindi heartland. We don’t need big wins by a margin of over 5 – 6 lac votes we need more wins even if with a lesser margin and that’s what the party knows – normal distribution of votes
Assuming the above gain loss is equal we are still at around 300 and need to look for gains. I know I’ve ignored Karnataka possible loss of 5-10 seats but let that go into margin of error for this time. Where is the gain going to come from to take it upto 310 – 315 seats, we need 15 more excluding Karnataka
One hope was Punjab but it’s a bit dicey as Congress seems to have regained it’s mojo at the expense of AAP despite exodus of leaders including Ravneet Bittu to BJP and off late rumors of Charanjit Channi also doing rounds
It must get to open it’s account in Tamil Nadu and Andhra along with retaining what it won in 2019 in Telangana and though the fight in Thiruananthpuram is looking one sided but Rajeev Chandrashekhar is giving his best and it can be surprise of the year
To sum up – a loss of 10 in Karnataka, 2 each in MP, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi/Haryana brings the party down to 280 and then you get to add 5 in UP and a seat here and there in South to comeback to 300
After 2 terms of pro incumbency a number of 300 that too when you contest not more than 450 seats is a highly appreciable. Let us give up on our fixation for a number of 350 or 400 and rejoice if the party manages to win 300+; why do we forget that with this they also have alliance partners who are going to add another 40 – 45 seats
Why Congress will not fall to 25? It will win over 15 seats in Kerala and 10 in Tamil Nadu. In rest of the states also you will give them something na. Andhra Telangana total of 8-10 seats and then Karnataka 8-10 seats. To these 43 seats add 1 in Haryana, 2-3 each in Punjab Maharashtra and Assam and a seat or two in Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar and Chhattisgarh, sufficient enough to touch 60 and get LOP position
Karnataka, Telangana the party has the chance of doing better than what I’ve projected given the goodwill of promises it has fulfilled while being in power, though at the cost of tax payers money
I know there is no difference from what I’ve been writing ever since January 21 but am repeating this one because there has been a change in my assessment from 280 to 300+ and off late various news channels and print magazines have started covering this and lending credence to my write ups as the thoughts are more or less aligned. Probably that’s the reason I reduced the frequency and didn’t roll out during last two weeks
Next week on I will try to carry out seat by seat analysis, if I manage to get the required data but any kind of analysis is futile if we don’t go to cast our vote. No matter it’s nearby in our place of stay or in a different city we must go and vote. I’m a non resident voter and have already booked my tickets to go and vote in the state where I’m the registered voter. Have you done that? Whom will I vote for? Let me disclose at my discretion

Keep watching out for this space that I will continue to update every week till we are finally over with elections. Will look forward to your opinion and feedback that may help me improve upon my accuracy level. But please don’t tag me a bhakt or a chamcha. I’m NOTA

Once again I reiterate – no politician is going to come in our support so let us simply read the political commentaries with an objective mind rather than applying them as a mud slinging weapon on one another and name calling. Let us only evaluate the outlook rather than spoiling personal relations by trolling one another